Readers of this newsletter know that whenever I want to educate myself on Republican political strategy, I turn to Sam Nunberg, Trump’s first campaign advisor who is as endearing for his bluntness (listen to the moment when I try to interrupt him and he shuts me down) as he is for his pets. He is pictured here with his new puppy, Harrison.

My takeaways from this latest q and a which you can listen to here and read the edited version below are as follows,

Sam’s perspective is:

1 – Trump has the advantage because Kamala is the incumbent and has not successfully separated herself from Biden.

2 – There’s a limit to the effectiveness of paid media — i.e. at a certain point you reach everyone, and the surplus $300 million the Harris campaign has raised possibly makes no meaningful difference.

3 – The map. This is the most interesting take-away of all. It does not look the same as it did in 2020. Arizona and Nevada are likely to go for Trump this time, Sam believes. Why? In Nevada — which has not voted Republican since 2004 — it’s immigration. Republican pollsters believe that the Nevada unions are now intensely concerned about illegal immigrants taking their jobs. Sam thinks Arizona flips to Trump because of the border. 2022 mid-term data showed the flip in House seats in New York and Florida happened because voters, especially suburban and exurban women voters, prioritized crime and the economy over abortion and January 6th. For the same reason, Sam thinks Trump takes North Carolina. And Georgia. And Wisconsin. Which means he can afford to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania to Harris.

Read on at Vicky Ward Investigates